🔗 Share this article

China has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near remote Japanese territory as China escalates strains following the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.