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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

But the latest field is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and recent underperformers rising collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a normal year!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still