Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
